Forex - Weekly outlook: August 7 - 11.
Investing | Aug 06, 2017 06:22AM ET.
Investing - The U. S. dollar rallied against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday, bolstered by a strong U. S. jobs report for July and comments by a Trump administration official about tax reform.
The Labor Department reported Friday that the U. S. economy added 209,000 jobs last month, beating expectations for a gain of 183,000 and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%.
The report also showed that average hourly earnings increased by 9 cents or 0.3% last month to $26.36 an hour, the largest monthly increase since October.
Wages increased by 2.5% on a year-over-year basis, matching June’s increase.
The uptick in wage growth indicated that inflationary pressures are firming. Markets believe stronger inflation will enable the Federal Reserve to stick to its plans for a third interest rate hike this year.
The dollar received an additional boost after Gary Cohn, director of the White House National Economic Council, revived hopes for tax reform in an interview on Bloomberg TV.
The U. S. dollar index , which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.72% at 93.37 late Friday.
For the week the index gained 0.33%, its first weekly percentage gain in four weeks.
The dollar has come under pressure in recent months amid doubts over whether the Fed would raise rates again this year and diminished expectations for tax reform and fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration.
The euro fell against the dollar, with EUR/USD down 0.83% to 1.1770, off the two-and-a-half year high of 1.1909 set on Wednesday.
The dollar was higher against the yen, with USD/JPY last at 110.69, up 0.6% for the day after rising as high as 111.04 earlier.
Sterling was also lower against the dollar, with GBP/USD down 0.73% to 1.3042.
In the week ahead , investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s U. S. inflation figures to gauge whether the economy is strong enough for the Fed to stick to its planned tightening path.
Appearances by a number of Fed speakers will also be in the spotlight.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
New Zealand is to release data on inflation expectations.
Switzerland is to publish inflation data.
The UK is to produce an industry report on house price inflation.
Financial markets in Canada are to remain closed for a holiday.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and New York Fed President William Dudley are both due to speak.
Australia is to release a report on business confidence.
China is to publish its latest trade figures.
China is to release inflation data.
Canada is to report on building permits.
The U. S. is to report on nonfarm productivity and labor costs.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.
The UK is to report on manufacturing production and trade.
Canada is to publish data on new house price inflation.
The U. S. is to release reports on initial jobless claims and producer prices.
New York Fed President William Dudley is speak about wage inequality in his region.
Financial markets in Japan are to remain closed for a holiday.
Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan and Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari are to speak and the U. S. is to round up the week with what will be closely watched data on consumer price inflation.
Written By: Investing.
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Forex Weekly Outlook – August 7-11 2017.
The US dollar remained on the back foot throughout most of the week, with the jobs report allowing for a comeback. Is this a temporary correction or the start of a dollar rally? The upcoming week features US inflation figures, the JOLTs data, a rate decision in New Zealand and more. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.
The US dollar suffered from further chaos in the White House. Anthony Scaramucci joined Reince Priebus in the long list of ex-staffers. Together with another failure of the health bill, the dollar suffered another round of losses. However, a solid jobs report allowed the dollar to recover on Friday: another gain of over 200K jobs and a rise of 0.3% in wages did the job. The euro took advantage as GDP growth looked good in the euro-zone. The pound wobbled on the BOE. USD/CAD seemed to have taken a much-needed pause as oil prices topped out. The Aussie also struggled as the RBA left its forecasts unchanged.
Updates: Aug 11, 14:30: US core inflation only 0.1% – USD falls across the board: US CPI and core CPI rose only 0.1% m/m, below expectations. Year over year, it’s up 1.7% on both indices. Aug 10, 15:29: Dollar rally deflates on weak PPI – back to reality: The US dollar nearly completed a week of recovery until weakness struck again. The producer price figures serve as a. Aug 9, 14:23: Gold and S&P going in opposite directions – Elliott Wave: Good morning traders! Today we are going to take a look at intra-day charts such as S&P500 and GOLD. Let’s. Aug 8, 17:00: USD extends comeback after excellent JOLTs report: The US dollar recovered on Friday after the Non-Farm Payrolls came out slightly better than expected. And also today, the. Aug 8, 14:01: Interview with Rob Colville of The Lazy Trader: I had the privilege of being interviews by Rob Colville of “The Lazy Trader”. We discussed a wide range of. Aug 7, 12:27: As good as it gets? – US economy edition – MM #154: We’re back from our vacation and we tackle the US economy given the recent data. Is it good enough? We tackle. Neel Kashkari talks : Monday 15:25 and also Friday at 15:30. The President of the Minnesota Fed is an outspoken dove that dissented from the previous rate hikes. It will be very interesting to hear his comments on the latest jobs report. If it is good enough for Kashkari, it is a hawkish sign from the Fed. US JOLTS Job Openings : Tuesday, 14:00. The number of job openings serves as another indicator of the health of the job market. While it lags the NFP, the Fed told markets it is of high importance. After beating expectations for quite a few months, May’s number was a setback: a drop to 5.67 million annualized. A small gain is on the cards now. A similar level of 566K is expected now Chinese inflation figures : Wednesday, 2:00. The world’s second largest economy is seeing rising costs for producers, with the PPI advancing at 5.5% y/y and 5.6% is expected now. CPI is lagging behind with 1.5% and a repeat of the same score is projected. China often “exports” inflation or deflation. The recent rises imply higher inflation in other countries, especially in the US. US Unit Labor Costs : Wednesday, 12:30. This quarterly measure serves as another indicator for wages or inflation. Higher costs of labor could trigger an earlier rate hike. In Q1 2017, costs rose by 2.2% in the final read after an initially strong read for of 3%. An increase of 1.2% is forecast. Crude Oil Inventories : Wednesday, 14:30. The weekly report has a significant impact on oil prices, the Canadian dollar and also the US dollar, with an inverse correlation on the latter. The recent rise in oil prices goes hand in hand with the fall of the US dollar. The smaller–expected draw of 1.5 million weighed oil prices. New Zealand rate decision : Wednesday, 21:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained the interest rate at 1.75% since the cut last November. The recent disappointing jobs report means no imminent rate hike is on the cards. The RBNZ and Governor Graeme Wheeler have tried to talk down the kiwi. Will they succeed this time as well? The jobs report provides a justification. US PPI : Thursday, 12:30. Producer prices eventually feed into consumer prices. In June, PPI advanced by 0.1% and so did Core PPI, all in all within expectations. Small gains are expected now as well1% on the headline and 0.2% on the core. US jobless claims : Thursday, 12:30. This weekly barometer of jobs has been very stable of late, coalescing around 240K. A similar measure is on the cards now. Note that the report falls within the week that the BLS makes its survey for the NFP. A small rise f240K to 244K is estimated. Bill Dudley talks : Thursday, 14:00. The President of the New York Fed is considered No.3 at the powerful institution. He is relatively close to the views of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and his response to the jobs report, including wages, will be of importance. US CPI : Friday, 12:30. Jobs are rising but inflation is stuck behind. CPI remained flat month over month in June and core CPI advanced only 0.1%. On a year over year basis, inflation remained subdued at 1.7%, the same as in May. For the month of July, both measures are expected to rise by 0.2%. Robert Kaplan talks : The President of the Dallas Fed has previously expressed worries about inflation. In his public appearance, he will have the chance to respond the latest inflation report and perhaps provide hints about the next moves by the Fed.
*All times are GMT.
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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor.
I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me.
Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.
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Forex Investors Buzz Stocks to watch next week August 7-11.
Key events are scheduled for the companies listed below next week.
Notable earnings reports : Marriott International (NYSE:)MAR), CBS (NYSE:(CBS) and Tyson Foods (NYSE:(TSN) on August 7; Disney (NYSE:DIS), Priceline (NASDAQ:(PCLN), Wayfair (NYSE:W), Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS) on Augusy 8; Ctrip (NASDAQ:(CTRP), Mobileye (NYSE:(MBLY) and Mylan (NASDAQ:(MYL) on August 9; Nvidia (NASDAQ:(NVDA), Alibaba (NYSE:(BABA), Macy’s (NYSE:(M) and News Corp (NASDAQ:(NWSA) on August 10; J. C. Penney (NYSE:(JCP) on August 11.
Expected IPO pricings : Zealand Pharma (Pending:ZLND) on August 8, Contura Energy (Pending:CTRA) on August 9, Ranger Energy Services (Pending:RNGR) on August 10.
IPO quiet period expirations : Avenue Therapeutics (NASDAQ:(ATXI), Esquire Financial (Pending:(ESQ), Mersana Therapeutics (NASDAQ:(MRSN); Aileron Therapeutics (NASDAQ:(ALRN), Blue Apron (NYSE:(APRN), Dova Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:DOVA) on August 8; Byline Bancorp (NYSE:BY), Tintri (NASDAQ:TNTR) on August 9.
Stocks to watch.
Secondary offering lockup expirations : Aeglea BioTherapeutics (NASDAQ:(AGLE), Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:(EXAS), Evolent Health (NYSE:(EVH), Ctyokinetics (NASDAQ:(CYTK) on August 7; Monroe Capital (NASDAQ:(MRCC), Accelerate Diagnostics (NASDAQ:(AXDX) on August 8; Becton Dickinson (NYSE:BDX) on August 9, Foundation Building Materials (NYSE:FBM) on August 9; Kinsdale Capital (Pending:(KNSL), TPI Composite (NASDAQ:(TPIC) on August 10.
Notable annual meeting : Pandora (NYSE:P) on August 7, Ralph Lauren (NYSE:(RL) on August 10, Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:(MACK) on August 11.
Special shareholder meetings : Farmers National Banc (OTCPK:(FMBN) on August 8, Central Valley Community Bancorp (NASDAQ:(CVCY), Folsom Lake Bank (OTCPK:(FOLB) on August 10.
Analyst/Investor day : BorgWarner (NYSE(BWA) on August 7, Equifax (NYSE:(EFX) on August 9.
Business update call : Barnes & Noble Education (NYSE:(BNED) on August 7.
FCC watch: : The deadline for the agency to deny Sinclair Broadcast’s (NASDAQ:(SBGI) purchase of Tribune Media (NYSE:(TRCO) is August 8.
FDA watch : Gilead (NASDAQ:(GILD) expects to find out if its single tablet daily regimen for HIV is accepted for review. TherapeuticsMD (NYSEMKT:(TXMD) to receive Advice Letter on TX-004HR. A drug approval call is scheduled for Jazz Pharmaceuticals on August 7.
Sales and revenue update : TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ:(AMTD) on August 7, WestJet Airlines (OTC:(WJAFF) on August 10.
JPMorgan Auto Conference : Presenters for the event from August 8-9 include Adient (NASDAQ:(ADNT), Dana (NYSE:(DAN), Visteon (NYSE:(VC), Cooper Tire & Rubber (NYSE:(CTB), Delphi Automotive (NYSE:(DLPH), General Motors (NYSE:GM), LKQ Corporation (NASDAQ:(LKQ), Stoneridge (NYSE:(SRI) and Avis Budget (NASDAQ:(CAR).
Barron’s mentions : Watch for Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Facebook (NASDAQ:(FB) and Google (GOOG, (GOOGL) to make a major push into sports TV beyond occasional streaming to challenge ABC/ESPN, Fox (NASDAQ:(FOXA), CBS, and NBC (NASDAQ:(CMCSA)
). Big gains are seen for Delta Air Lines (NYSE:(DAL), Finisar (NASDAQ:(FNSR) and Voya Financial (NYSE:(VOYA). There’s some caution expressed on Tesla (NASDAQ:(TSLA). Despite the rave reviews on the Model 3, the stock is seen as “priced to perfection” into the production ramp.