вторник, 15 мая 2018 г.

Donchian channel breakout trading strategy was used


What Everyone Should Know About the Donchian Channel Indicator.
The basics of trading are simple. You always aim to sell at a higher price than you buy. In that case, the Donchian channel indicator can help us a lot in trading.
Additionally, it may be interesting for you to learn about a trading indicator that is simple to understand and use, being part of a legendarily successful trading strategy. We're talking about the Turtle trading system, of course. Before we delve any deeper, let's do a quick breakdown of the Donchian channel indicator.
The Donchian Channel Formula.
The indicator simply takes a user-defined number of periods and calculates the upper and lower bands. It plots two lines on the chart according to the Donchian channel formula. This straightforward formula says that:
the upper line is the highest price for the last n periods; the lower line is the lowest price for the last n periods.
The default value for n is set as 20 in MetaTrader 4, but you can set it at whatever value you prefer. However, some versions of the Donchian channel indicator also plot a third line.
This centreline is simply the mean of the upper and lower values – namely, the centreline = ( n - period high + n - period low) /2.
How the Donchian Indicator Works.
Donchian Channels were invented by trader Richard Donchian, one of the pioneers of technical analysis. The Donchian channel plots two lines on a chart:
one line is the highest high over a set period; the other line is the lowest low over a set period.
You as a trader, should decide the time frame in question, though the default period number used in the classic Donchian system is 20 days.
Source: Admiral Donchian Indicator, Admiral Markets MT4SE Platform.
Installing the Donchian Channel Indicator on MT4.
Although the Donchian Channel is a well-known indicator, it's not one of the standard indicators that comes with MetaTrader 4. If you want to use the Donchian Channel on MT4, you will need to download it as a custom indicator. The reason for this is that many of Donchian channels indicators on the MT4 market might not be that accurate and some of them might slow the platform down. One of the key advantages of MetaTrader 4 is the accessibility of its programming language. The MT4 user base is large, active and includes a huge variety of custom indicators. But that can also be a disadvantage as this means there is more than one Donchian channel indicator download available and they might be totally coded in a wrong way.
If you want to enhance your trading experience even further for free, download the custom MetaTrader Supreme Edition plugin that includes a fully and professionally coded Donchian Channel indicator.
Downloading and Installing Donchian Indicator on MT4.
Downloading the Donchian channel indicator is easy. First find the Donchian channel file you want in the MetaTrader community by clicking on the Help tab in MT4, then clicking MQL4munity . Once you've downloaded it, find the file's location on your computer and copy it to your clipboard.
Now go into MT4 and chronologically:
select File click Open Data Folder open the MQL4 folder open the Indicators folder paste the downloaded indicator file from your clipboard.
When you restart MT4, you should see the Donchian channel indicator listed in the navigator . So let's take a closer look at the indicator now.
Source: Admiral Markets MT4 Platform, Navigator Window.
Using the Donchian Channel Indicator in MT4.
Turtle Trading Strategy.
Who were the Turtles and what was the strategy that earned them millions of dollars?
Two Wall Street gurus once turned a group of novices into million-dollar traders. As if that's not enough, they did it in a matter of weeks. This group of traders were known as the Turtles. If you don't already know the story, read on.
In the mid-eighties, a well-known commodity speculator Richard Dennis made a bet with his friend Bill Eckhardt. The heart of the matter was a question of nature versus nurture – whether great traders are born that way or whether they can be trained.
The bet got serious.
Serious enough that Dennis took out ads in the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, for applicants to be a part of this grand experiment. After an initial training period of just two weeks in Dennis' methods, applicants were let loose with real money. After a month's trial period, the best Turtles were given upwards of $1 million USD to trade with.
If that sounds a little crazy. hang on, because there's more.
The most successful Turtle was just 19 years old and was given $2 million USD, which he turned into more than $30 million USD profit. As it turns out, the trading rules they used were actually fairly simple.
In essence, they used what is called a Donchian Trend system. And yes, you guessed it – at the heart of that system is the Donchian channel indicator.
The Turtles used two breakout variants, or "systems". The first system (System One) used a 20-day price breakout for entry. However, the entry was filtered by a rule that was designed to increase the odds of catching a big trend, which states that a trading signal should be ignored if the last signal was profitable.
If the Turtles skipped a System One 20-day breakout and the market kept trending, they needed to use something to get back into the market. That's where System Two 55-day kicks in. The System Two breakout acted as a fail-safe. That is how the Turtles kept from missing big trends that were filtered out.
The strategy using System One is slightly different. Buy a 20-day breakout if the last S1 signal was a loss while go short a 20-day breakout if the last S1 signal was a loss.
The Turtles calculated the stop-loss for all trades using the Average True Range of the last 30 days, a value which they called N . The initial stop-loss was always ATR(30) * 2, or, in their words, two volatility units.
The Exit Strategy.
The Turtles usually exited their trades using breakouts in the opposite direction, which allowed them to ride very long trends. The exit strategy used in their System Two is as follows:
Exit long positions if/when the price touches a 20-day low; Close shorts positions if/when the price touches a 20-day high.
The exit strategy using System One used a slightly different methodology:
Close long positions if/when the price touches 10-day low, Close short positions if/when the price touches a 10-day high.
The Turtle Strategy Money Management.
The Example of Turtle Trading Strategy.
Source: GBP/USD Daily Chart, Admiral Markets MT4SE Platform, Mar 2016-Aug 2017.
Above, you can see a daily GBP/USD chart in MT4, with the Donchian channel custom indicator applied several times. To set up the Turtle system chart, apply the Admiral Markets Donchian channel indicator three times. We used the Turtle trading rules with these settings. You can change the colours and the line width to your preference.
Source: Admiral Donchian Indicator, Admiral Markets MT4SE Platform.
Source: Admiral Donchian Indicator, Admiral Markets MT4SE Platform.
Source: Admiral Donchian Indicator, Admiral Markets MT4SE Platform.
Notice how the price breaks out above and below the Donchian channels in various places?
As noted earlier, the Donchian channels show the highest high with the lowest low for your specified time. When the price breaks through the channels, we are seeing new highs or new lows being set. This is an indication of a possible start of a new trend.
For Turtle Trading, on MT4 we use following rules:
Set up a daily chart. Wait for the price to exceed the high or low price of the past 20 periods (Donchian Channel 20). Open a long or short based on the breakout. The arrows show possible entries.
Source: GBP/USD Daily Chart, Admiral Markets MT4SE Platform, Mar 2016-Aug 2017.
If the previous 20-bar breakout resulted in a profitable trade, the new breakout would be ignored. If you ignore a 20-bar breakout, you might be at the risk of missing a big trend, should the price continue to move in the direction of the breakout. That is when the above-mentioned System Two might become useful. If the price exceeds the 55-bar high/low you open a long/short position depending on the breakout direction respectively. In the case you didn't open a trade at the 20-bar breakout. Every 55-bar breakout is taken, whether or not the previous one was a winner.
Source: GBP/JPY Daily Chart, Admiral Markets MT4SE Platform, May 2016-Sep 2017.
Using MT4SE to Improve the Turtle Channel Indicator.
In order to use proper money management described at the beginning of the article, traders might add a few additional indicators:
The ATR (20) is used for the exit strategy. Have in mind that exits can be far from the entry price, so the initial stop-loss is placed at 2 x ATR 20 for both systems.
For example, if the ATR is 101 pips, the initial stop-loss would be placed 202 pips from the entry price, and then manually updated once the 10 or 20-bar low/high is lower/higher than the initial stop.
The Admiral Pivot indicator could be set on monthly if you are trading the Daily time frame and it can help with exits. Admiral Pivot uses standard price information, such as high, low and close, and uses it to project possible support and resistance levels, but also much more allowing you to customise different time frames used for calculation.
Source: GBP/JPY Daily Chart, Admiral Markets MT4SE Platform, Aug 2016-Sep 2017.
Have in mind that the Admiral Donchian is also available on MT5SE trading platform.
Source: USD/JPY Daily Chart, Admiral Markets MT5SE Platform, Sep 2017.
Last Words on the Donchian Channels.
We now know that the Donchian channel indicator is a simple but effective indicator that plots the highest high and the lowest low over a set period of time. It is useful for identifying price breakouts and is used in some trend-following systems.
The Donchian channel indicator is available in numerous versions for MT4 and produces false signals that can be minimised with filters. Markets have changed a lot over the years, so even the Turtle strategy needs some serious modifications. Additionally, the Donchian channels can be used in many different ways, so feel free to experiment on a risk and cost-free demo account before opening a high-risk, high-reward live account.
To see how our award-winning analyst Nenad Kerkez also known as Tarantula trades on Live Account, sign up for free live trading webinars!
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How To Use The Donchian Channel For Breakout And Trend-Following Traders.
The Donchian channel is a trend-following indicator which has been heavily used by the infamous Turtle traders. The Donchian channel measures the high and the low of a previously defined range – typically of the past 20 days. The screenshot below shows the channel on Apple with a 20-day range where it marks the highs and lows of a 20 day period.
click to enlarge.
Typically, a trader would look for a well-defined range and then wait for price to break out to either one side for a trade entry trigger. But, there is more to the Donchian channels and we will discuss how to increase the quality of the signals and how to structure a trend-following position sizing strategy.
Better entry signals in 2 steps with the Donchian Channel.
Step 1 – finding high momentum breakouts.
Of course, not all breakouts are going to be successful and there is no way to generate a 100% accurate system, but there are ways to increase the quality of entry signals for the Donchian channel. The first screenshot below shows the AAPL chart and the 20-day Donchian channel. False breakouts have been marked with a red (x) and successful breakouts with a green tick.
click to enlarge.
At first glance, it’s apparent that a significant amount of false breakouts exist when momentum is not supporting the move. In the first step, we added the RSI strength and momentum indicator to filter out low-momentum breakouts which are often false breakouts. In the next steps we show how other tools and techniques can help improve the accuracy of the system.
click to enlarge.
Tip: If you are a reversal trader or fade breakouts, combining the Donchian channel and the RSI can be a great asset in your trading arsenal. A lack of momentum or divergences can signal false breakouts if followed by failed break of the range.
Step 2 – high entry accuracy with a trend filter.
In the next step, we add a long-term moving average; in the scenario below we added the 100-period moving average which is an excellent filter tool that helps you separate between long and short scenarios. Whenever price is above the 100-period moving average, you would only look for breakouts to the upside; and when price is below the 100-period moving average, you only look for short breakouts.
Using moving averages as a directional filter is used by many professionals and also Marty Schwartz, who was featured in the Market Wizards series, mentions the moving average filter as one of his favorite tools.
The screenshot below now also includes the 100-period moving average. The amount of signals has been reduced while, at the same time, the quality of the signals has been improved significantly. There are only 3 false signals left and in the next step we will show how to minimize the impacts of losses by using money management techniques.
click to enlarge.
Those are just two examples how adding trading tools and indicators can help you improve the quality of your trade entries. The approach highlights the importance of combining trading tools and concepts that support your trading style and objective in order to filter out low probability entries.
Position sizing for breakouts and trend-following.
Now that you have a better understanding about how to improve the quality of trade signals, we can take a look at position sizing. Especially for breakout and trend-following traders, there is a specific position sizing strategy that can help you improve the quality of your system even further.
“ Scaling in ” refers to the position sizing strategy of entering a fractional amount of your intended position size first and as price moves in your favor, you add to the winning position; and ideally move your stop loss to protect your profits so far.
There are two major benefits of scaling in:
On a fake breakout, your position will be relatively small because you haven’t yet reached the full position. Only when the breakout is strong and successful you reach your maximum position size and fully capitalize on winning trades.
The screenshot below shows the AAPL chart again and it illustrates how the impacts of the false signals could have been minimized by applying the scaling in technique. Whereas the successful breakouts often saw long moves and the trader would have been able to scale in completely, the unsuccessful breakout failed after the first entry and the loss would have been only a small amount.
click to enlarge.
How these principles can help you become a better trader.
While this article is not only meant to show you how to use the Donchian channel indicator, it has another message as well: you have to be conscious of your trading style and build your approach around your goals. As a breakout and trend-following trader, look for momentum and sentiment tools that help you read what is going on and filter out trades with a lower probability. On the other hand, if you fade false-breakouts, look for tools that help you identify low momentum price movements into high-impact price areas.
And take it one step further and look beyond generating entry signals; structure your position sizing and money management around your trading objectives. For every trading style, there are techniques and principles that can improve the quality and robustness of the system; think outside the box and start building your own, powerful method and stop following generic advice.
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12 comments.
Really like this trading method looking forward to trying it out!
Keep up the great work!
thanks for the kind words. Hope it adds some value to your trading.
When do u take profits? That actually may be more difficult…
I wouldn’t say it’s more difficult. It’s a very different aspect of trading. We will have an article coming next week about profit taking.
Keep up the good work 🙂
Hi Rolf, is this indicator applicable to Forex trading? Thx.
Yes, it works on all markets.
Great article as usual!
I’d like to ask what your threshold for the RSI is when you use it to filter out low-momentum breakouts, and specifically how do you use RSI for this purpose? Do you reject signals when RSI is below some value?
I use mainly RSI divergence.
As I have learned from your website, both RSI and Stochastic can be used to measure the strength of a trend, up or down. Could you please write an article to compare these two?
You can make a search and I have written about the RSI and the STOCHASTIC on the blog in depth 🙂
Awesome article !! Looking forward to trying this out. Thank you!!
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Donchian Breakout Trading System.
The Donchian Breakout trading system (rules and explanations further below) is a classic trend following system. As such, we included it in our State of Trend Following report, which aims to establish a benchmark to track the generic performance of trend following as a trading strategy.
The Wisdom State of Trend Following reports the performance of a composite index made up of classic trend following systems (Donchian Breakout and others) simulated over multiple timeframes and a portfolio of futures, selected from the range of 300+ futures markets over 30+ exchanges that Wisdom Trading can provide clients access to. The portfolio is global, diversified and balanced over the main sectors.
We publish updates to the report every month, including that of the Donchian Breakout trading system.
Donchian Breakout System Explained.
The Donchian Breakout Trading System is based on the Turtle system. It uses the Turtle logic, except it is single unit, does not use the Last Trade is Winner rule, does not use correlations, and uses a MACD Portfolio Manager to filter trades.
The Donchian System trades on breakouts similar to a Donchian Dual Channel system. There are two breakout figures, a longer breakout for entry, and a shorter breakout for exit.
The Donchian system uses a stop based on the Average True Range (ATR). Note that the Turtle concept of N has been replaced by the more common and equivalent term Average True Range (ATR).
A trade is entered when the price hits the high or the low of the preceding X-days. For example, Entry Breakout = 20 means that a long position is taken if price hits the 20-day high; A short position is taken if the price hits the 20-day low.
If set to zero, this parameter has no effect. If Entry Offset in ATR is set to 1.0, a long position isn’t entered until price hits the normal breakout price, plus 1.0 ATR. Likewise, a short position won’t be entered until the price hits the normal breakout price, minus 1.0 ATR. Either a positive or negative value can be specified for this parameter. A positive value effectively delays entry until the specified point after the breakout threshold chosen; a negative value would enter before the breakout threshold chosen.
This parameter defines the distance from the entry price to the initial stop, in terms of ATR. This system by default uses the order entry price, not the fill price, as a basis of the stop price. Since ATR is a measure of daily volatility and the Turtle System stops are based on ATR, this means that the Donchian System equalizes the position size across the various markets based on volatility.
According to the original Turtle Rules, long positions were stopped out if price fell 2 ATR from the entry price. Conversely, short positions were stopped out if the price rose 2 ATR from the entry price.
Unlike the Exit Breakout based stop, which moves up or down with the X-day high or low, the stop defined by Stop in ATR is a “hard” stop that is fixed above or below the entry price upon entry. Once set, it does not vary throughout the course of the trade.
Note that trades are liquidated when price hits either the Exit Breakout, Entry Breakout for the opposite direction, or the Stop in ATR, whichever is closest to the price at the time.
Trades in progress are exited when the price hits the high or the low of the preceding X-days. This concept is the identical to Entry Breakout, but the logic is reversed: Long trades are exited when price hits the X-day low, and short trades are exited when the price hits the X-day low. The Exit Breakout moves up (or down) with price. It protects against adverse price excursions, and also serves as a trailing stop that acts to lock in a profit when the trend reverses.
Note that trades are liquidated when price hits either the Exit Breakout, Entry Breakout for the opposite direction, or the Stop in ATR, whichever is closest to the price at the time.
These options can be enabled or disabled with the Hold Initial Stops and Use Reversal Exit parameters. If the initial stop is held, then the initial stop price will be used to exit during the trade. If using the reversal exit, then the trade will be exited if the price hits the entry breakout for the opposite direction.
If set to zero, this parameter has no effect. If Exit Offset in ATR is set to 1.0, a long position isn’t exited until price hits the normal breakout price, minus 1.0 ATR. Likewise, a short position won’t be exited until the price hits the normal breakout price, plus 1.0 ATR. Either a positive or negative value can be specified for this parameter. A positive value effectively delays exit until the specified point after the breakout threshold chosen; a negative value would exit before the breakout threshold chosen.
Defined the number of days for the ATR calculation. This is an exponential moving average of the True Range. 39 represents a 20 day Wilder ATR.
This is the number of days for the long moving average portion of the MACD indicator.
This is the number of days for the short moving average portion of the MACD indicator.
The MACD itself is the Short Moving Average minus the Long Moving Average. The system will allow Long trades when the MACD is greater than zero and allow Short trades when the MACD is less than zero.
This system uses the Fixed Fractional Money Manager.
Your Custom Version of this System.
We can provide you with a customized version of this system to suit your trading objectives. Portfolio selection/ diversification, timeframe, starting capital… We can adjust and test any parameter to your requirements.
Contact us to discuss and/or request a full custom simulation report.
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Please click on the picture below to see our trading systems performance.
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One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
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Donchian channel breakout trading strategy was used


If there's one thing that most traders are always looking for, is a set of rules or a system that allows them to trade the markets profitably. In this article I will describe a complete trading system used, in the past, by a very famous trader and the people he taught, and then later on by several hedge funds managed by his disciples.
It can be used "as is", without any modifications, or you can use it as a basis to develop your own system, further enhancing the power of the original rules.
In the early-1980s, one of the greatest and richest traders of the 20th century, Richard Dennis, and his friend Bill Eckhardt, were having an ongoing discussion on the viability of teaching people how to trade. Richard was convinced that it was possible to teach ordinary people to become good traders, while Bill believed that great traders possessed a natural skill, some sort of sixth sense that could not be taught.
In order to settle this discussion they made a bet: they would recruit a few inexperienced people for their trading company, C & D Commodities, teach them the rules of the system they already used, give them capital to trade, and then see if they had become good traders or not.
These people would become known as "The Turtles", because Richard once famously said: " we are going to grow traders like they grow turtles in Singapore ".
► The philosophy behind the system.
Richard and Bill did not believe that the future direction of the markets could be predicted consistently in the long run, so it was futile to even attempt it. Their whole approach to trading was based on following the market's momentum after a breakout. The idea behind it is that once the market breaches a resistance/support (previous high/low), it is likely to continue in the same direction.
Losing trades are quickly closed once the stop-loss is hit, while winning trades are kept open until the trend reverses, no take profit orders are used.
They were also convinced that a mechanical trading system with rigid rules was the best way to trade, because this way many of the emotions that demonize a discretionary are minimized and even erased. A good mechanical trading system makes it possible to be consistent all the time, and consistency is a key skill to have in order to be successful.
► Ingredients of the system.
Even though the original system used daily bars, you can use any time-frame you wish. However, the shorter the time-frame the lower the profit factor of any system will be, due to trading costs remaining constant and profit potential getting lower. A good technical system should be time-frame neutral, so if you see a system which requires a very specific time-frame to work, be cautious.
Like the time-frame, a good system should work on all markets, as long as their are liquid, and the costs are low. The Turtles traded currencies, bonds, and commodities with this system. I advise trading as many currency pairs at the same time as possible (scaling back the amounts accordingly), because diversification, when done correctly, is the best way to lower risk while keeping the profit potential intact.
- Donchian Channel 10, 20 and 55. This indicator forms a channels and simply shows the highest high and the lowest low of the last n periods.
► Preparing your charts.
Open up your platform and add a ATR 20 indicator. Now add a Donchian Channel 55, with high values in blue, low values in red, and line width 3, like this:
Then add a Donchian Channel 20, blue and red again, line width 2. And finally a Donchian Channel 10, still blue and red, line width 1, line style dashed (---). This is how it should all look like in the end:
This is just for cosmetic purposes, you can use other colors and line widths, but these ones work well.
► Finally the rules.
This system is formed by two sub-systems. System 1 uses a shorter time-frame based on 20-bar breakouts, while System 2 uses a longer time-frame based on 55-bar breakouts.
Open a long or short position if the price exceeds the high or the low price respectively of the past 20 periods (Donchian Channel 20).
If the previous 20-bar breakout resulted in a profitable trade this new breakout would be ignored. The previous breakout for this rule is considered the previous breakout shown in the chart, irrespective of its direction (long or short), or whether or not that trade was actually opened, or skipped because of this rule.
If a 20-bar breakout is ignored, you are at the risk of missing a big trend, if the price continues to move in the direction of the breakout, so this is where System 2 is useful. If the price exceeds the 55-bar high/low you open a long/short position respectively, in case you didn't open a trade at the 20-bar breakout. All 55-bar breakouts are taken, whether or not the previous one was a winner.
The system uses manual trailing stops, so a System 1 trade would be closed if the price moved against the position and exceeded the 10-bar low/high.
System 2 trades would be closed if the price went against the position and exceeded the 20-bar low/high.
These exits can be very far away from the entry price, so the initial stop-loss is placed at 2 x ATR 20 for both systems. Example, if the ATR is 50 pips, then the initial stop-loss would be placed 100 pips from the entry price, and then manually updated once the 10 or 20-bar low/high is lower/higher than the initial stop.
Position sizing and money management.
I'm not going to fully describe all rules in this subject because they are unnecessarily complicated for an average trader, and we have to remember that they traded futures contracts with fixed sizes, so the calculation for position sizing is a bit different for spot Forex.
You can use the money management calculator I made, which is perfect for Forex, while still adhering to the principles of this system. It will indicate the correct amounts to trade as well as where to place the initial stop loss, given the ATR and how much of your capital you want to risk.
The Turtles risked 2% of their accounts on each trade, and could have 12 positions at the same time. If you trade 20 uncorrelated pairs I would advise risking around 1-1.25% on each trade, 10 pairs 1.5-1.75%, 5 pairs 2-2.25%, and 1 pair you can risk 5% at the most (live accounts).
► What to expect with this system.
Being a trend-following system, it is obviously very profitable when there are clearly defined trends in the market, and will experience losses when the market is trading sideways. The win ratio of a system like this, which focuses on quickly closing losing trades while keeping winning trades open until the trend reverses, is around 35 to 40%, but winning trades will be larger than losing ones, so the risk-reward ratio is at least 1:2.5 or 3. In the long run, you will make money with such statistics.
Drawdowns depend on the leverage used and level of diversification, but as a rule of thumb you can expect to have a maximum drawdown similar to the CAGR. So if the leverage you use makes it possible to achieve a CAGR of 25%, you can expect to eventually have a maximum drawdown of about 25% as well. Risking 1.25% per trade and using 20 pairs you'd probably achieve this CAGR over the long run.
This is not a perfect system, especially taking into consideration that the markets are choppier and have more false breakouts these days than in the 1980s. A good way to improve it would be add a filter that keeps us out of the market when there are no trends. For example, adding a 200SMA and only opening long trades when the price is above the 200SMA, and short if it is below. Remember, there are no perfect systems, but this one - and others similar to it - have consistently produced profits for the last 3 decades.
The Turtles made over US$100 million during the 2 years that the experiment lasted, so Richard won the bet, trading could indeed be taught. Many of those traders started their own investment funds once they left C & D, and to this day they still use systems very similar to the one I describe here. This is a list of a few ex-Turtles and how much money they are currently managing:
On the subject of the book, yes Curtis Faith's book "Way of the Turtle" clearly explains why the system doesn't work any more and why Curtis Faith lost all his account and then he struggled to pay his rent for years, until a Dot Com company took him on as a marketing adviser.
I understand you are defensive about your article, and that is OK. Everybody is entitled to an opinion, and my opinion is that your article has no value, as it is something that you believe because you are inexperienced or unable to see the big picture. Good Luck.

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