Elliott wave forex trading

About Mike: Michael Golembesky is a featured analyst at ElliottWaveTrader, focusing on Forex and the VIX. Mike is a renowned practitioner and educator in applying Elliott Wave analysis to trading forex and volatility instruments. He is a popular speaker at financial forums and conferences in the U. S., including The Traders Expo and The Money Show, and widely syndicated on sites including MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, and Nasdaq.
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Using Elliott Wave To Trade Forex Markets.
In terms of the total value of all transactions, the forex market has become the largest market in the world. As the economies of countries across the globe become more and more intertwined, the relationship between the currencies of various countries grows in importance. It is this development that continues to drive interest in the forex markets. This article will examine a method to trade forex markets using the Elliott Wave Theory.
The Elliott Wave Theory.
In addition, the theory holds that each of the countertrend waves – i. e., wave number 2 and number 4 – will unfold in an ABC pattern. In other words, during waves 2 and 4 of a five-wave uptrend, the security in question will retrace part of the wave 1 advance in a pattern consisting of two smaller down waves (labeled A and C) separated by one up wave (labeled B). Likewise, during waves 2 and 4 of a five-wave down-trend, the security in question will retrace part of the wave one decline in a pattern consisting of two smaller up-waves (labeled A and C) separated by one down-wave (labeled B).
In reality, things typically do not unfold in such a neat, clean, and easy to follow five-wave pattern. As a result, many individuals who espouse a belief in Elliott Wave analysis nevertheless end up interpreting the current wave count differently than other adherents. And in fact, it can be argued that the Elliott Wave is as much an art as it is a science, and that various interpretations are to be expected.
As such, one important thing to note is that this article is not so much about how to generate an Elliott Wave count – since so many individuals end up with different interpretations – but rather about how to trade forex markets using the Elliott Wave as the driving force. For the purposes of this article, I will use the Elliott Wave count as generated objectively by ProfitSource source software by Hubb. The software has an automated algorithm for generating and displaying the wave count.
It should be noted that the preferred count can change dramatically from one day to the next based on the built-in algorithm, and that another person or program may arrive at a different interpretation of the wave count and any given point in time. Still the benefit of using this method is that for better or worse, the count is calculated using an objective algorithm and is not open to subjective interpretation. (For more, see Forex Automation Software For Hands-Free Trading .)
Laying Out the Steps of a Plan.
Step 1. Select a method for generating an Elliott Wave count.
In ProfitSource this occurs when a wave marked as "3" changes to a wave marked as "4" (this actually indicates the end of wave 4 and the start of wave 5). Waiting for this to occur can be the toughest part, for this step can require a great deal of patience. A given single forex market may experience the setup that we are looking for only a few times a year. Step 3. Look for confirmation of the trend using another indicator or indicators.
Long Setup Confirmation: Once a wave 3 above the price bar changes to a wave 4 marked below the price bar we will then assess the following indicators to confirm that a long trade should be made: 90-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is positive (i. e., greater than zero) The three-day relative strength index reverses to upside for one day.
These two confirming actions do not have to take place on the day that the wave number changes from 3 to 4. As long as the both occur at some point prior to the wave count being something other than 4, then a confirmation is considered to be in force and we will enter a long trade. (To learn more, see Ride The RSI Rollercoaster .)
Short Setup Confirmation: Once a wave 3 below the price bar changes to a wave 4 marked above the price bar we will then assess the following indicators to confirm that a short trade should be made:
90-day CCI is negative (i. e., greater than zero) The three-day RSI reverses to downside for one day.
These two confirming actions do not have to take place on the day that the wave number changes from 3 to 4. As long as the both occur at some point prior to the wave count being something other than 4, then a confirmation is considered to be in force and we will enter a short trade.
Trade Exit Plan.
2. If the three-day RSI reaches 85 or higher for a long trade, or 15 or lower for a short trade, or if the wave count changes from 4 to 5, we will sell half and adjust our trailing stop as follows:
For a long trade we will use a trailing stop that subtracts one times the three-day average true range from the previous day's low. For a short trade we will use a trailing stop that adds one times the three-day average true range to the previous day's high.
3. If the wave count changes to something other than a wave 5, we will simply exit the trade on the next day.
Example Setup and Trade.
Below the bar chart you can see that the three-day RSI ticked lower on the day and that the 90-day CCI is in negative territory. This confirms the setup and constitutes a sell short signal, so we also calculate our stop-loss price by adding three times the average true range over the last three days to the current day's high price. On the next day the euro/yen cross was sold short at 112.63 and a trailing stop was entered at 117.74.
In Figure 2 you can see that roughly a month later the three-day RSI registered a reading below 15. As a result, on the next day we would have bought back half of our position at 109.50 and also adjusted our trailing stop to only one times (rather than three times) the average true range over the past three days added to the current day's high, thus generating a much tighter trailing stop (this tighter stop does not appear until Figure 3).
Finally, in Figure 3 you can see that the euro/yen cross worked slightly lower over the next several weeks, but ultimately our trailing stop was hit and the remaining portion of our original short position was closed out at 109.44.
Develop some objective way to interpret the current Elliott Wave count. Consider employing some sort of filter or filters to ensure a valid trading signal. Always have a stop-loss point. Consider taking profits on the first good move in the expected direction and then letting the rest ride with a trailing stop.
(For a background, see our article on the Elliot Wave Theory .)

How to Understand the Three Building Blocks for Trading Elliott Wave.
Position Trading based on technical set ups, Risk Management & Trader Psychology.
How To Understand the Basic Pattern How To Understand Corrections vs. Impulses In Markets How To Understand Fibonacci In Relation To Wave Development.
“I attribute a lot of my own success to the Elliott Wave approach.”
-Paul Tudor Jones, Tudor Jones Capital.
Elliott Wave is a great trading tool for trading trends . However, it’s not as confusing as a lot people make it out to be when you consider the primary objective of the tool. Elliott Wave is meant to put the current move of the market in context for you, the trader.
Putting the market in context for you is of great help. For starters, if you know a market that has recently been in a strong trend is correcting, you can look for a resumption of the prior trend to enter at a favorable price. Also, you can look to see if the pattern is starting to break down to see if the prior trend has exhausted itself, and look to either take profits or enter a new trade in the direction of the new trend.
Understand the Basic Pattern.
Learn Forex: The Overall 8-Wave Elliott Wave Cycle.
Courtesy of Daily Trading Course.
The picture above is a mock-up that shows the progression of markets as seen in Elliott Wave. As you can see, the market is often broken up by strong trends and minor moves against the trend. The with-trend moves are known as impulse or motive waves and the counter trend moves are known as correction.
Another key aspect of Elliott Wave is that trends are fractal. Simply put, that means that each impulsive wave can be broken down into 5 smaller waves and each correction can be broken into 3 smaller segments of a counter-trend move. However, it’s often not overly necessary to label every single aspect of the wave.
How to Understand Corrections vs. Impulses in Markets.
Learn Forex: 5-Wave Impulse & 3-Wave Corrections unfolding in GBPUSD.
Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT.
As illustrated above, the trend or impulse unfolds in 5-waves whereas corrections unfold often in a 3-wave pattern. You’ll often hear Elliott wave fans discussing trading based on 5-s & 3-s and that is because they identify the trend and countertrend moves based on the unfolding of a move in 5 & 3-wave patterns.
Furthermore, in understanding the basic 5-wave impulse or trend, you can be on the lookout for a 3-wave correction or developing correction. The purpose of looking for a correction is that as the trend resumes, you can look for the correction to be losing steam so that you can enter at a good price. What many traders who are unfamiliar with Elliott wave often end up doing is chasing the price or enter on the extension of the trend right before the correction begins. This causes them to get stopped out because they did not understand the context of the market and current trend when they entered the trade.
When looking at the 5-wave pattern and 3-wave correction to get context, you can see how the breaking down of GBPUSD has us looking for a correction to continue. Therefore, I’m taking the context as provided by Elliott Wave to get a better feel for GBPUSD. Once this corrective move to the downside completes, then I can look for a buy on a resumption of the overall trend to higher prices.
If you’re not trading GBPUSD, you can take a look at the chart you’re trading and see if you can identify any 5-wave or 3-wave structures. That will help you grab a context of the current market so that you can look for the maturity of the current trend or ideally the exhaustion of the correction. After you’ve identified a current market as ready to resume the trend, you can then look to Fibonacci numbers in order to see where the market is likely go to go as according to Elliott Wave.
How to Understand Fibonacci In Relation To Wave Development.
“ When R. N. Elliott wrote Nature’s Law , he explained that the Fibonacci sequence provides the mathematical basis of the Wave Principle”
- Elliott Wave Principle, Frost & Prechter pg. 91.
Once you’ve been able to get context for the current trend, you can then look to Fibonacci numbers in order to find price objectives within Elliott Wave. In other words, the reason why Elliott Wave traders often utilize Elliott Wave is because you can have definitive levels as to where the correction may end with Fibonacci Retracements. Furthermore, you can have price objectives by utilizing the Fibonacci Expansion tool.
Learn Forex: Fibonacci Provide Price Objectives within Elliott Wave.
Chart Crated by Tyler Yell, CMT.
One key thing to note when utilizing Fibonacci retracements within Elliott Wave is that there are levels to watch out for but rarely a level that the market must hit. Therefore, you want to focus on price action near levels like the 61.8% on a wave 2 and a 38.2% on wave 4. If you see a lack of conviction past these levels then you can look to a resumption of the overall trend off of these levels.
In terms of price objectives, you can use the Fibonacci expansion tool. The expansion tool takes three points on the chart to project the exhaustion of the next impulse. The most-commonly used targets are the 61.8%, 100% & 161.8% expansion. This simply means that this impulse is either 61.8%, 100% or 161.8% of the prior wave and simply shows you the progression and strength of the current trend.
Elliott can be a headache if you worry about labeling every wave and every correction. Instead, I’d recommend focusing on the big picture. In other words, are we in an impulse or a correction? More importantly, if we’re in a correction that’s about to be exhausted, where can we enter on the resumption of the trend?
---Written by Tyler Yell, Trading Instructor.
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